The research suggests that a great deal of consolidation is being carried out across the industry.
The report uncovers a number of interesting patterns developing in the international market. Big international brewers like Heineken, Interbrew and SABMiller are playing an important role in the international consolidation process, while traditional beer markets like Germany and Austria, where most brewers are still family owned, have now become a playground for take-over battles.
Quite recently Heineken won the battle for the Austrian brewer BBAG, after Interbrew had acquired the German brewers Gilde and Beck's a year earlier. SABMiller followed suit and took over the number two on the Italian market, Peroni.
And after a new take-over of Interbrew in Germany, all eyes are set on the German brewers Holsten and Brau und Brunnen, which are now also for sale and will probably be acquired by a major German party or by one of the big international players.
This report goes on to describe the most important trends in the Dutch beer industry, where, unlike other traditional beer countries, the market is very stable.
Firstly, demand is changing as a result of factors such as declining per capita consumption, the increasing threat of substitution by pre-mixed drinks, a continuing customer preference for premium products and an increasing share of beer. In addition, increasing retail power is enabling supermarkets to squeeze margins, which is pressuring brewers to strengthen their relative brand position. This, says the report, is resulting in increasing competition in the on-and off-trade.
The Dutch market is highly consolidated. With 95 per cent controlled by four players, an oligopoly has been created and competition is fierce. This is particularly so because the companies rating second, third and fourth all hold a 15 per cent market share compared with the 50 per cent market share, whereas the market leader Heineken holds a 50 per cent share.
As a consequence, the traditional positions chosen by the companies are shifting. Speciality beers have gained value, low-cost beers are creating their own segment and prices in particular segments are becoming uniform.
This report is one of a series of publications undertaken by the department of food and agribusiness research at Rabobank International.