China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Thailand and Vietnam are among the key growing markets: all coming within the top ten incremental volume providers up to 2021.
Packaged water is a key driver of growth, with consumers interested in health and wellness and good quality drinking water.
2021: The global market
The data shows an increasing volume migration from developed to emerging markets, says Canadean.
In 2021, North America is predicted to take an 8.7% share of global beverage commercial consumption, and Western Europe will take 9.2%. While the combined share of these markets was nearly one-third of global beverage consumption in 2000, this will have shrunk to 18% by 2021.
In contrast, Asia is predicted take a 47.2% share in 2021.
Soft drinks are seeing particularly strong growth in Asian markets, Antonella Reda, product development manager, Canadean, told this site.
“In 2016 energy drinks are forecast to top the growth ranking in Asia with 11.5% growth,” she said.
“There is an increasingly fast pace of life; rapid urbanization in markets such as China; perceived and proven functionality of energy drinks; strong marketing and communication strategies of the major players; and expanded distribution and the expansion of modern retail.
“Bulk and home and office delivered (HOD) water is also growing strongly, with predicted growth in 2016 approaching 8%. As is the case with packaged water, it’s being driven by the desire for healthy consumption as well as the lack of quality municipal tap water in many markets.”
China
While Asia is predicted to contribute two-thirds of global incremental beverage consumption, China alone will be responsible for one-third of the additional volume.
“Despite the slowing economy there is strong propensity for soft drinks – especially perceived ‘healthy’ drinks such as packaged water,” said Reda. “There is also a growing awareness of health and wellness and a desire for ‘healthy’ living; increasing disposable incomes; a huge population base; and a need for ‘on the go’ easy hydration.”
Latin America and the Middle East
Latin America is predicted to achieve the second highest incremental volume growth behind Asia, thanks to the Brazilian market.
The importance of the emerging Middle East and North Africa (MENA) markets is shown by a forecast incremental volume increase, which is anticipated to be three times that of North America, driven by population growth and demand for soft drinks.
Africa, meanwhile, has a predicted volume increment by 2021 that is expected to be double that of East Europe.
Of the top ten highest volume markets in 2021, Canadean predicts that only three developed markets – the US, Japan and Germany – will feature in the ranking.
Many major producers are already harnessing the volume potential in emerging markets, said Reda, but she warns that expansion comes with challenges.
“Producers need to invest in infrastructure and distribution efficiencies in order to retain profitability, particularly in poorer and slowing economies, and markets beset by political upheaval and/or legislative challenges,” she said.
“Continued investment in development of innovative drinks, and value-added propositions that respond to changing consumer lifestyles and demographic changes at both a global and local level, remain vital to drive both volume and value growth.”
